Group F — Netherlands, Japan, Sweden and Tunisia. On paper manageable for the Dutch, but Japan reached the knockout rounds from groups containing Germany and Spain at the 2022 World Cup. The Netherlands vs Japan match is the most unpredictable fixture of the group.
Group composition
| Team | Coach | WC odds | Key players |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | Ronald Koeman | ~15.00 | Van Dijk, De Jong, Gakpo, Koopmeiners |
| Japan | Hajime Moriyasu | ~45.00 | Mito, Ito, Kubo |
| Sweden | — | outsider | Isak, Kulusevski |
| Tunisia | — | outsider | — |
The Japan threat
Japanese football has developed systematically — most players now ply their trade in the Bundesliga, Premier League and Serie A. Moriyasu builds on high pressing and fast transitions — a style that unsettles European sides. Japan’s odds to beat the Netherlands (~5.50) are historically modest given what they achieved in 2022.
Betting breakdown
Netherlands to win the group: ~1.35. Realistic but uninteresting. Japan to advance (top 2 or best 3rd): ~2.20 — given Moriyasu’s system and Sweden’s relative weakness, this has value. Netherlands Over 1.5 vs Tunisia: ~1.35 — the Dutch have scored at least 2 in 7 of their last 8 matches against African sides.
Group exit forecast
1st: Netherlands | 2nd: Japan or Sweden | Exit: Tunisia and one of the two.
