Eight teams remain in the chase for the World Cup. The Round of 16 eliminated all three co-hosts, sent Brazil home for the first time since 1990, and delivered Norway to the last eight. Argentina sealed their spot with a stunning 3-2 comeback from 2-0 down against Egypt; Switzerland edged Colombia 4-3 on penalties after a goalless 120 minutes. All four quarterfinal ties are confirmed. Here is a full breakdown with odds and betting angles.
All Four Quarterfinal Fixtures
| Date (ET) | Match | Odds 1 | Draw | Odds 2 | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul, 4:00 pm | France — Morocco | 1.60 | 3.89 | 6.53 | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough |
| 10 Jul, 3:00 pm | Spain — Belgium | 1.63 | 3.90 | 5.60 | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood |
| 11 Jul, 5:00 pm | Norway — England | 4.26 | 3.71 | 1.89 | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami |
| 11 Jul, 9:00 pm | Argentina — Switzerland | 1.71 | 3.50 | 5.25 | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City |
Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook as of July 7, decimal format.
France vs Morocco (July 9): Qatar Rematch
Morocco knocked France out in the 2022 World Cup semi-finals — a 2-1 win that remains one of the finest matches in recent tournament history. Four years on, the sides meet again, this time in the quarterfinals. The market favours France at 1.60, implying roughly 62% probability. Morocco at 6.53 implies 15%. That is a mismatch: the Atlas Lions reached the last eight after beating the Netherlands on penalties and then thrashing Canada 3-0 without conceding a single goal in the Round of 16.
Betting angle. Morocco in knockout football knows how to keep a clean sheet in normal time and strike on the counter. At 1.60, France offers negative expected value. More interesting: Under 2.5 goals or the Asian handicap 0 on Morocco at approximately 3.10–3.30.
Spain vs Belgium (July 10): Champions vs the Unexpected
Spain progressed with a tight 1-0 win over Portugal. Belgium the same day dismantled the United States 4-1. The market does not believe in Belgium at 5.60. De Bruyne, Lukaku if fit, and Thibaut Courtois in goal — this is not a side to dismiss.
Betting angle. Spain have not scored more than one goal in any knockout match in this tournament. Under 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score — No both carry genuine value here.
Norway vs England (July 11): Haaland vs Kane
The standout individual duel of the quarterfinals. Haaland scored twice in the 79th and 90th minutes to eliminate Brazil 2-1 — his tally stands at seven goals, level with Messi heading into the quarterfinals. Kane is England’s all-time leading scorer. The market prices England at 1.89 versus 4.26 for Norway. That is hard to justify: England needed a 2-1 win over DR Congo — a 13.00 outsider — to get here.
Betting angle. Norway at 4.26 is the best value in the quarterfinals. They have won both knockout matches in regulation, without extra time or penalties. Recommended: a controlled stake on Norway, or Over 2.5 goals given the firepower both forwards bring.
Argentina vs Switzerland (July 11): Comeback Kings vs Penalty Specialists
Argentina reach the quarterfinals via one of the most dramatic matches of the tournament — a comeback from 2-0 down to beat Egypt 3-2, with Messi scoring twice including a stoppage-time winner to take his tally to eight goals, the tournament’s leading scorer. Switzerland needed a goalless draw and a 4-3 penalty shootout win over Colombia to advance, with Ruben Vargas netting the decisive spot-kick.
Betting angle. Argentina at 1.71 is a fair price for the defending champions with Messi in this form. Switzerland at 5.25 are a genuine outsider but disciplined and capable of closing a match down — they have scored zero goals in 120 minutes of knockout football so far. The sides have met seven times: Argentina won five, two draws — including a 1-0 win at the 2014 World Cup. Under 2.5 goals fits both teams’ knockout profiles.
The Bigger Picture: Who Can Win This
France and Spain remain outright co-favourites. Argentina have moved up after the Egypt comeback — Messi at eight goals changes the conversation. Norway, with Haaland on seven, are live dark horses at their current price. Morocco are undervalued again. Of the eight remaining teams, only France and Spain entered the tournament in the top two of the outright market — but this World Cup has already shown that means nothing past the group stage.
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