Group L — England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama. On paper a straightforward group for Tuchel’s side. But Croatia have knocked England out twice at decisive stages (2018 WC, Euro 2020) — and that historical weight always moves the odds.
Group composition
| Team | Coach | WC odds | Key players |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | Thomas Tuchel | ~7.50 | Kane, Bellingham, Saka, Rice |
| Croatia | Zlatko Šarano | ~55.00 | Modrić, Brozović, Gvardiol |
| Ghana | — | outsider | — |
| Panama | — | outsider | — |
England vs Croatia: the key match
| England | Draw | Croatia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approx odds | 1.65 | 3.70 | 5.20 |
Croatia concede very few xG against England historically — Modrić controls tempo and removes space. The draw at ~3.70 has historical backing: 2 Croatia wins, 2 draws, 1 England win from the last 5 meetings. Modrić plays his last World Cup at 40 — motivated to end with a result.
Group exit forecast
1st: England | 2nd: Croatia | Exit: Ghana, Panama.
