On May 30 in Budapest, Paris Saint-Germain retained the Champions League title, beating Arsenal 4-3 on penalties after a 1-1 draw through 120 minutes. The Gunners came within one kick of winning the trophy for the first time in the club’s 140-year history — but Gabriel sent his effort over the bar in the final spot-kick of the shootout.
How the match unfolded
Arsenal opened the scoring in the sixth minute: Marquinhos’ poor clearance fell straight to Kai Havertz, who broke clear and finished into the near post past Safonov. By expected goals, it was a gift — Arsenal’s xG for the entire match was just 0.35 against PSG’s 1.55. Paris dominated possession at 77% and earned 10 corners to Arsenal’s zero.
The lead lasted until the 65th minute. Kvaratskhelia drew a foul from Mosquera in the box, and Dembélé converted confidently into the left corner. At full time, PSG had registered 18 shots (3 on target) to Arsenal’s 4 (1 on target). Extra time produced no further goals.
Penalty shootout: Safonov and Gabriel’s decisive miss
The shootout contained several key moments. Raya guessed correctly to deny Nuno Mendes — Arsenal appeared in control. But Eze dragged his effort wide, while Gyökeres and Martinelli converted for the Gunners as PSG’s Doüé, Hakimi and Beraldo all found the net.
Final tally: PSG 4 – Arsenal 3. Gabriel’s miss from the spot — his kick sailing over the crossbar on the fifth attempt — sealed it. Matvei Safonov was composed throughout and handled the shootout better than his opposite number.
Match statistics
| Stat | PSG | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 18 | 4 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 1 |
| xG | 1.55 | 0.35 |
| Possession | 77% | 23% |
| Corners | 10 | 0 |
| Penalties (shootout) | 4/5 | 3/5 |
What the odds said
Pre-match, PSG were slight favourites at around 2.20–2.30 for a 90-minute win, with Arsenal at 3.10–3.20 and the draw at approximately 3.40. The market was broadly right: the defending champions held a marginal edge backed up by the xG data.
The under 2.5 goals line was priced near 1.75 and landed. By my calculations, roughly 40% of Champions League finals over the last decade have gone to extra time or penalties — taking a 90-minute result in a match of this magnitude is inherently elevated variance. The “penalties in the final” market was available at around 3.20–3.50 across most bookmakers, implying a probability well below the historical base rate of 35–40%.
PSG: back-to-back Champions League winners
PSG become only the second club in the history of the modern UCL format to win consecutive titles. Arsenal remain without the trophy after 140 years. Whether the Gunners retain their squad and return to the final will be one of the key questions in the 2026/27 UCL futures market.
For those tracking sports betting markets, early-stage group draw prices next season typically offer more value than late-tournament lines — worth watching once the draw is confirmed.
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