Photo: Bryan Berlin / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
Ryan Fox won The Open Championship 2026 at Royal Birkdale — his first career major at age 39. Sportsbooks had him at 125-to-200-to-1 before the tournament started, and his odds to win ballooned as high as 750-to-1 heading into the third round, with the New Zealander well off the pace. Someone who bet him at that price turned every $100 into $75,000.
How the tournament turned: from 750-1 to champion in two rounds
The turning point came in the third round: Fox shot a 62, tying the record for the lowest round in major championship history. That was the only moment all week his winning odds collapsed that sharply — from hundreds-to-one to a genuine contender. In the final round, Fox closed the door for good: birdies on 4 of his last 6 holes, including the brutal 18th, where a 12-foot birdie putt sealed a one-shot win over American Cameron Young.
| Stage | Fox’s odds to win |
|---|---|
| Pre-tournament (FanDuel/Caesars) | 125-to-200-1 |
| Heading into Round 3 | 750-1 |
| After Round 3 (62) | Genuine title contender |
Why the market got it so wrong early
200-1 pre-tournament odds weren’t a fluke — they reflected Fox’s actual major championship record: he’d never won at this level before this week, and the market reasonably priced him as a solid tour pro, not a title threat. That’s exactly why Round 3 was such a line-moving event: books reprice probability based on current form, not multi-year track record, and a single record-setting round can crash the odds by orders of magnitude over 18 holes.
Who cashed in on the longshot
Bets placed before the tournament at 125-to-200-1 paid out an order of magnitude more than bets placed before the final round. One story stands out: a bet placed before Round 3 at 750-1 turned $100 into $75,000. It’s a textbook illustration of the golf-longshot principle: even a real shot at winning, priced by the market at a fraction of a percent, can pay off many times over — precisely because golf is one of the few sports where a single hot round can completely rewrite a player’s tournament fate.
The historical weight of the win
Fox becomes just the third New Zealander in history to win a men’s major, and the third-oldest major champion of the past decade — trailing only Phil Mickelson (2021 PGA Championship) and Tiger Woods (2019 Masters). For a player who had no major titles heading into the week, this reshapes his ranking status for the coming season and the odds on future events.
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