The group stage of the 2026 World Cup is over. Thirty-two of 48 teams have taken their places in the Round of 32 bracket, and Canada wasted no time setting the tone: in the very first knockout match, the host nation beat South Africa 1-0. What followed were two of the biggest shocks in World Cup history — Germany lost a penalty shootout for the first time ever, and the Netherlands went out the same way a day later. Updating this as results come in: 9 of 16 ties are done, with a full breakdown of every result and what’s still on the board.
First Result: Canada 1-0 South Africa
Canada opened the knockout stage with a 1-0 win over Bafana Bafana at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. The host nation eliminated the same South Africa that Mexico had opened the group stage against — the tournament is over for Bafana Bafana. For the betting market, this is the signal that matters: African and Asian outsiders arrive in the Round of 32 with real chances. FIFA rankings count for little here — and the rest of the stage proved it in far more dramatic fashion.
Shock of the Round: Germany and Netherlands Go Out on Penalties
Germany 1-1 Paraguay (3-4 on penalties). A match priced at 1.29 for a German win turned into the single biggest upset of the round — arguably one of the biggest in World Cup knockout history. Enciso put Paraguay ahead in the 42nd minute, Havertz equalised in the 54th, and a Tah goal was chalked off by VAR in extra time. Havertz, Woltemade and Tah all missed from the spot in the shootout — the first penalty shootout Germany have ever lost at a World Cup. José Canale scored the winning kick, sending the reigning European runners-up home. The lesson for the market: odds of 1.29 guarantee nothing in a knockout tie — only a win in regulation does. Backing the match result always carries shootout risk that the line barely prices in separately.
Netherlands 1-1 Morocco (2-3 on penalties). Gakpo put the Dutch ahead midway through the second half, and a routine win for the favourite (priced at 2.20) looked set. Then Issa Diop headed in an equaliser in the first minute of stoppage time — a classic case of a team playing on the counter catching a leading side cold in added time. In the shootout, Morocco keeper Yassine Bounou saved Summerville’s fourth spot kick, and Ismael Saibari scored the winner. This is Morocco’s third straight tournament producing a knockout story — they reached the semi-finals in 2022 — and once again the market underestimated their chances in a single-elimination format.
Two favourites priced under 2.30 eliminated on the same day. The practical takeaway for bankroll management: in a neutral-venue knockout stage, trim your stake on heavy favourites priced 1.25–1.35 below your usual allocation — the variable that matters isn’t “who’s stronger” but “who survives 120 minutes and a shootout without a mistake.” Handicaps and totals carry less variance than backing the match result outright.
Full Round of 32 Bracket: All 16 Ties
| Date (UTC) | Match | Odds 1 | Draw | Odds 2 | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jun | South Africa — Canada | — | — | — | 0-1 ✅ |
| 29 Jun | Brazil — Japan | 1.69 | 3.80 | 5.20 | 2-1 ✅ |
| 29 Jun | Germany — Paraguay | 1.29 | 5.40 | 11.00 | 1-1, 3-4 pens ✅ |
| 29 Jun | Netherlands — Morocco | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.70 | 1-1, 2-3 pens ✅ |
| 30 Jun | Ivory Coast — Norway | 3.70 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 1-2 ✅ |
| 30 Jun | France — Sweden | 1.25 | 6.00 | 11.00 | 3-0 ✅ |
| 1 Jul | Mexico — Ecuador | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.70 | 2-0 ✅ |
| 1 Jul | England — DR Congo | 1.25 | 5.60 | 13.00 | 2-1 ✅ |
| 1 Jul | Belgium — Senegal | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.70 | 3-2 (a.e.t.) ✅ |
| 1 Jul | USA — Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1.34 | 5.00 | 9.50 | 2-0 ✅ |
| 2 Jul, 19:00 | Spain — Austria | 1.28 | 5.40 | 13.00 | — |
| 3 Jul, 23:00 | Portugal — Croatia | 1.77 | 3.40 | 5.00 | — |
| 3 Jul, 03:00 | Switzerland — Algeria | 1.87 | 3.40 | 4.40 | — |
| 3 Jul, 18:00 | Australia — Egypt | 3.30 | 2.90 | 2.45 | — |
| 4 Jul, 22:00 | Argentina — Cape Verde | 1.13 | 8.00 | 20.00 | — |
| 4 Jul, 01:30 | Colombia — Ghana | 1.56 | 3.70 | 7.00 | — |
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook, fixed before the round began, decimal format. Bold = market favourite at kickoff. Results are updated as matches finish.
The Rest of the Results: Where Favourites Held Up
Brazil 2-1 Japan. Not the script anyone expected — Neymar never played a decisive role, and Japan went ahead through Kaishu Sano’s 29th-minute strike after intercepting a loose pass in midfield. Casemiro equalised in the 56th, and substitute Martinelli scored the winner in the 96th minute. Odds of 1.69 paid off, but not comfortably — a reminder that moderately priced favourites (1.5–1.8) in a knockout round are often better played through totals or “win both halves” markets than a straight match-winner bet.
France 3-0 Sweden. Mbappé scored twice, taking his tournament tally to six goals, with Barcola adding the third. Odds of 1.25 were the most predictable result of the round. France now face Paraguay, Germany’s conquerors — and given how Paraguay have performed under shootout pressure, that tie is a lot tougher than 1.25 on paper suggests for the next round.
Norway 2-1 Ivory Coast. Haaland scored the winner in the 86th minute, delivering Norway’s first-ever World Cup knockout win. Nusa opened the scoring in the 39th, Diallo equalised, but Haaland’s finish — his fifth goal of the tournament — settled it. Norway were technically the market favourite here (2.00), so this isn’t classified as an upset, but it confirmed their attack is one of the sharpest left in the bracket. Brazil are next.
Mexico 2-0 Ecuador. Jiménez and Quiñones scored as the co-hosts advanced past the Round of 32 without a shootout or a loss for the first time since 1986 — a 40-year drought broken. Odds of 2.25 on Mexico paid off without much drama.
England 2-1 DR Congo and Belgium 3-2 Senegal (a.e.t.). Both favourites advanced, but neither comfortably — Belgium especially needed extra time against a side priced at 3.70. This is the second signal of the round (after Germany and the Netherlands) that African sides are systematically underpriced by the market in this bracket.
USA 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina. The hosts advanced despite a red card for Folarin Balogun — a rare case of a favourite closing out a match while down a man. Belgium await in the Round of 16.
What’s Left: Six Matches to Close Out the Round
After two of the round’s biggest favourites went out, the remaining ones deserve closer scrutiny than they would have a week ago:
- Spain vs Austria (2 Jul): ESP 1.28 — after Germany and the Netherlands, this is one of the last top-tier favourites priced this short. The round’s pattern suggests a straight match-winner bet carries more risk here than a -1.5 handicap.
- Portugal vs Croatia (3 Jul): POR 1.77 / CRO 5.00 — fair value with Ronaldo starting, but Croatia have a track record of forcing shootouts (Denmark, Russia and England all fell that way in 2018). After Germany and the Netherlands, trust in favourites priced 1.7–2.3 in this bracket should be dialled down.
- Australia vs Egypt (3 Jul): AUS 3.30 / EGY 2.45 — the last match in the round where the market favourite isn’t obviously the stronger side on paper. Real value on Australia at the current price.
- Argentina vs Cape Verde (4 Jul): odds of 1.13 leave nothing on the match result — the only workable markets are Over 3.5 goals or the -2.5 Asian handicap.
- Colombia vs Ghana (4 Jul): COL 1.56 — a solid but not overwhelming favourite; after this round’s string of upsets, factor extra time into your bankroll planning.
Where to Bet on the World Cup Round of 32
- 1Win Casino — live markets on every Round of 32 tie, half-time and corner markets → visit site →
- 1xBet — full live stats, handicap and total markets for every match → visit site →
- Stake Casino — competitive margins on top-tier World Cup fixtures → visit site →
- BC.Game — crypto platform, live football markets, instant withdrawals → visit site →
Bottom Line: What to Watch First
Nine matches in, and this round has already made history: Germany lost a World Cup penalty shootout for the first time ever, and the Netherlands went out the same way a day later — two favourites priced under 2.30, gone within 24 hours of each other. Brazil and France advanced without major scares and strengthened their outright title odds, but both needed the closing stages to get there. Of the six remaining ties, only Australia vs Egypt is genuinely open; Spain, Portugal, Argentina and Colombia remain favourites, but after this round’s two biggest shocks, loading a big stake on their match result alone is no longer the obvious play.
